000
FXUS62 KJAX 070749
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH DRY
AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SFC HIGH
REMAINS N OF THE AREA WITH NE TO E FLOW CONTINUING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING W ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH A FEW MOVING A FEW MILES INLAND. PRESENTLY...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH GNV ALREADY REPORTING 1/2
MILE VSBY.

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NW OF THE AREA AND DRY AIR WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE S INLAND
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN THOSE AT OR BELOW 40%. NAM AND
GFS MODEL STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH ON THE
FEATURE. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND HOW MUCH WILL MOVE INLAND IN
THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION THRU WED...BUT HAVE NOT GONE NEARLY AS HIGH WITH ACTUAL
POPS AS THE NAM MOS SUGGESTS. PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING RAPIDLY BY
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SLOWLY
INCREASE IS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS S AND HEIGHTS RISE. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER INLAND
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

.LONG TERM...MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND SW FLOW INCREASES. POPS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT
COASTAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AT VQQ AND GNV
WILL CONTINUE TIL AROUND 12Z. HAVE VCTS AT VQQ AND GNV AFTER 17Z AS
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK PRODUCING A SW FLOW...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN
4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  69  93  70 /  20   0  20  10
SSI  86  75  88  75 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  88  72  90  72 /  30  10  30  10
SGJ  86  74  88  74 /  30  20  30  10
GNV  91  70  92  71 /  30  10  40  10
OCF  91  71  92  71 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CARROLL/ZIBURA