000
ACUS01 KWNS 070533
SWODY1
SPC AC 070532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A
LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS
PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN LATE.  ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE
SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX...
WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD
WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF
ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT
ROTATION.  AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE.  WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A
LOW-END SLIGHT RISK.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM
SECTOR OCCURS.  THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS
-- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5%
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010